Thursday, September 22, 2005

Rita may stall over Texas

I was just over at where Dr. Jeff Masters wrote the following:
The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that
the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her
rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead,
these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate
inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two
days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second
trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario
develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm
surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a
deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster
area. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow
morning to know better.

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